… Nigerians Still Ask: “Where Is the Development?”
The federal government generated an unprecedented ₦28.23 trillion in tax revenue in 2025, according to official disclosures by the leadership of the Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS).
The figure, which includes oil and non‑oil taxes, exceeded the approved revenue target of about ₦25.2 trillion by roughly ₦3 trillion, representing a performance of about 112 percent and a year‑on‑year jump of roughly 30 percent over 2024 collections.
Officials have repeatedly described 2025 as a “strong outing” for the tax authority, powered largely by non‑oil tax reforms and tighter enforcement.
Data presented to lawmakers and the public show that non‑oil tax revenue was the real star of the year, contributing about ₦21.46 trillion of the 2025 total, while oil‑related taxes underperformed their target by over 5 percent.
This shift is in line with the current administration’s drive to reduce historic dependence on crude oil, harmonise multiple taxes and broaden the base of value added tax, company income tax and other non‑oil levies.
In media briefings, NRS officials framed the results as proof that recent tax reforms and digital enforcement tools are beginning to pay off.
Yet, despite this record haul, questions around the visibility of development—especially in infrastructure, public utilities and basic services—have persisted throughout the year.
Lawmakers on the House Committee on Appropriation publicly queried the executive over reports that capital components of the 2025 budget had recorded “zero performance” for much of the year, even as revenue numbers were beating targets.
Their concerns echoed a wider public perception: while government is collecting more from citizens and businesses, the lived reality on roads, power supply, health facilities and schools still feels largely unchanged for many Nigerians.
Top economic officials have offered an explanation that points less to revenue weakness and more to fiscal restructuring.
Finance Minister Wale Edun told legislators that the administration inherited a system heavily reliant on Central Bank “ways and means” overdrafts and off‑budget petrol subsidy arrangements through the national oil company, a model that had pushed central bank financing to around ₦30 trillion by the time President Tinubu took office.
Halting this practice, he argued, was necessary to restore macroeconomic stability and tame inflation, but it also created a funding gap that limited how much of the new tax revenue could immediately translate into capital projects on the ground.
Budget Minister Atiku Bagudu added that a significant chunk—about 70 percent—of the 2025 capital budget was deliberately rolled over into 2026 under an agreement with the National Assembly, with the aim of ensuring better funding certainty and execution for projects.
In other words, while the tax agency surpassed its target, much of the money is only expected to show up in visible infrastructure spending from 2026 onward, assuming implementation keeps pace with the revised calendar.
This sequencing helps explain the apparent disconnect between impressive revenue statistics and the relatively muted pace of new roads, rail, power or major social projects in 2025.
For citizens, however, the macro‑fiscal explanations do little to blunt the immediate impact of higher tax enforcement, inflation and reduced subsidies on fuel and foreign exchange.
President Tinubu has repeatedly insisted that the improved revenue base will ultimately fund
“critical infrastructure, better health facilities, food security and security architecture” under the Renewed Hope Agenda, but the lag between revenue collection and project delivery has fuelled skepticism.
Civil society groups and analysts point out that, in a country where poverty and underemployment remain widespread, any period in which government takes more without visibly doing more is likely to deepen distrust in the tax system.
What emerges from 2025, therefore, is a complex picture: on paper, the federal government’s tax performance has rarely been stronger, with ₦28.23 trillion collected and targets comfortably surpassed.
In practice, the decision to prioritise fiscal clean‑up, debt sustainability and the rollover of capital projects into 2026 has meant that Nigerians have not yet seen a level of infrastructure development and public service improvement that feels commensurate with the record revenue.
Whether the unprecedented tax haul of 2025 will be judged a success will depend less on the numbers themselves and more on how quickly they translate, from 2026 onward, into visible roads, power, schools, hospitals and security improvements that citizens can see and feel.